We are writing to hopefully clear up some widespread confusion concerning voting in the California primary.
Due to early concerns about two Republicans possibly winning in the governor's race, viral messaging has taken hold encouraging voters to wait till the last week to vote and then to vote for whomever is leading in the polls. This messaging began when there were legitimate fears that two Republicans could win in our jungle primary system. With Republican candidate Chad Bianco now consistently polling around 10%, that concern is very negligible.The greater risk for Democrats now is a low turnout overall.
As covered in this article from Cal Matters, a nonpartisan and nonprofit news organization, "The push to vote late flies in the face of recent pleas from election officials and Gov. Gavin Newsom for voters to get their ballots in early in the hopes of speeding up California’s notoriously slow vote-counting process. “Time is of the essence in preventing election lies from taking hold,” Newsom wrote in a recent letter addressed to all 58 county registrars urging them to “tabulate and release results quickly and accurately.” Turning in a mail-in ballot on Election Day, as some activists propose, is the worst possible scenario for election administration officials."
The leadership team at IndiMarin encourage you to vote ASAP for your preferred candidates. You do not need to vote based on polls. YOUR vote is YOUR voice.
Prior to this election, we have always been encouraged to vote as early as possible. Why? There are several reasons.
First, a steady flow of ballots over the election cycle helps election officials efficiently process ballots and prevent a bottleneck if too many ballots arrive in the final days and slow the counting.
Second, Democratic volunteers are working hard making phone calls and knocking on doors of voters to maximize turnout. This phase of the Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) work is called the ballot chase. When ballots are submitted early, those voters get pulled off the GOTV outreach lists and then volunteers can efficiently focus on those voters who have not yet turned in their ballots. When the majority of voters decide to hold onto their ballots until the final week, voter outreach efforts are far less efficient.
Lastly, some people who choose to wait may end up missing the boat for a variety of reasons - sickness, job, family demands etc. Not all voters are as motivated about politics as those of us on this mailing list, and when life intervenes, votes left to the last minute can slip through the cracks.
The danger of widespread waiting is that Democrat turnout ends up being depressed overall. A lower Dem turnout could have negative consequences in MANY of the races on the ballot possibly including key Congressional districts we need to win to flip the House. The potential drop off in overall turnout could hurt Dems in races up and down the ballot.
Below are the stats of ballots submitted thus far with Republicans significantly outpacing us. This statistic is NOT the norm in California where registers Democrats make us about 45% of voters and registered Republicans make up 25%.
If you do decide to delay your vote, do not vote by mail any later than May 26. There have been changes in the postal process and ballots mailed any later may not get counted. If you choose to wait beyond the 26th, make concrete plans to vote via ballot box or in-person.
And if you want to consider polling in your decision, it is recommended to use the results in two upcoming polls, PPIC and UC Berkeley. These are generally considered the top quality statewide polls. However, we do not know when they will be released. Note that polls are not highly predictive, may vary, and may not reflect the absolute level of candidate support.
These two websites may be helpful as you determine your voting choices:
Blue Voter Guide - BVG is a great tool as you make your selections. You can plug in your address, get a customized ballot, make your selections, and create your own "cheat sheet" for when you are ready to fill out your real ballot. Not sure about certain races yet? You can fill it out partially, save your choices and come back to it later. The site also lists endorsements for each candidate which is helpful info to see in one place. It's also a great site to recommend to friends/family who also may be struggling with the length of the ballot.
Cal Matters Interactive Quiz - Still unsure of your choice for Governor? This interactive quiz allows voters to see which candidates match their views.
That's it, ya'll. We'll get through this and then it's on to the hugely important work ahead of us to get out the vote for the November midterms. We'll get started in earnest in early July. Stay tuned for details in mid-June and please be ready to show up for duty then and up through November.
In the meantime, LET'S GET THOSE BALLOTS SUBMITTED!